Deutsche Bank has updated its recession forecast. The bank’s economists now see “an earlier and somewhat more severe recession” than previously predicted. “The Fed has undertaken a more aggressive hiking path, financial conditions have tightened sharply and economic data are beginning to show clear signs of slowing,” said the economists.
In response to these developments, we now expect an earlier and somewhat more severe recession.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points last week — the biggest increase since 1994.
In its semi-annual report to Congress released Friday, the Fed said: “The committee is acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship, especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials … The committee’s commitment to restoring price stability — which is necessary for sustaining a strong labor market — is unconditional.”
The Deutsche Bank economist noted:
A more severe tightening of financial conditions could easily pull forward recession risks to around the turn of the year, which could short-circuit the Fed’s tightening cycle.